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Free Pick Analysis

07/11/2020

UFC 251: Masvidal vs Usman

 

Dpduece1

Free Pick Analysis

Muslim Salikhov vs Elizeu Dos Santos

 

 

Two strikers with 31 finishes coming at each other with crazy kicks. I'm in! Thats one reason I'm really looking forward to watching Muslim "The King of Kung Fu" Salikhov going against Elizeu "Capoeira" Dos Santos. Salikhov looks to keep his momentum going on his way to the top while Dos Santos is trying to give another reason why he was once a top 15 fighter.

 

 

The King of Kung Fu Salikhov is on a 3-fight win streak with 2 of them coming by KO. 

Salikhov, a world Wushu Sanda Champ, comes in boasting a 16-2 record with 12 KO's. He's an up and comer and a very technical kickboxer. He is well known for his crazy spinning back kicks and although he throws them with frequency, already has 4 KO's in their results. Once he lands a kick, that puts fighters on alert setting up his powerful looping overhand right. He did struggle in his first UFC fight against Alex Garcia with takedowns eventually ending in him getting submitted but has really worked hard to improve that part of his game since.

 

 

Elizeu Dos Santos comes in as UFC vet going 8-2 with half of wins coming by finish. He has a capoeira background and is a very versatile fighter mixing his striking well with punches and kicks even having his own KO by Spinning heel kick. He has good footwork and switches stances a lot to change his angles of attacks. He does have an open stance which has him catching some damage when coming in and attacking. He does have a 3-inch reach advantage which can come into play to keep Salikhov too close to land his power shots and kicks.

 

 

On any other fight card this fight here would be on the main card but with 3 title fights on the line I can make an exception for this being a prelim, showing once again how stacked this card is! This one should be a good one with two fighters possessing KO power.  I am really excited to see what happens in this fight with the winner possibly getting a top contender in their next bout. Salikhov is a patient fighter who is great at moving in and out and picking his spots so don’t be surprised if he comes out the gate a little slow. With Dos Santos style, he loves to hop/move around the ring and might be a just bit quicker than Salikhov giving him the ability to be able to land early on. But as the fight goes on and Salikhov starts timing his attack, I see him landing some counters along with spinning kicks. Once he gets his attention and Salikhov has Dos Santos guessing what he's going to throw next, it's going to leave openings for Salikhovs power attacks. That's going to be trouble for Dos Santos. It's been a while since The King of Kung Fu has gotten a spinning kick knockout. He's due another one but this time it might be one to the body of Dos Santos that puts him down. Salikhov wins with a KO/TKO by way of a spinning matter.

 

Take Salikhov -130

I also like the under 2.5 RDS in this one at -110
and if you have extra money to play with, throw a little on Salikhov by KO/TKO +235

 

SuntheBum

Free Pick Analysis

Aldo vs Yan

Yan is a powerful boxer. He likes to set up his boxing with nice low kicks. He likes to stalk his opponents down and use his fast speed to catch them. He has great cardio and head movement is good. Aldo is so seasoned. Even though he won the belt at a young age, he is still developing. He was known for his devastating leg kicks and crisp boxing but lately just hasn't been kicking much. His fight with Marlon was his first fight at that weight class and he looked like his old self. With his match-up with Yan, I feel he can keep the pressure forward and look for counters. If he goes back to his keg kicks, I feel it can give Yan trouble. But Yan can use his own kicks and speed to slow Aldo down. But with how these two fight, I feel a finish and it will be with the former champ becoming a two division champ.

Aldo ML+200
Over 2 1/2 rounds -180


Santos vs Bogatov


Santos is a veteran of the sport and shows great boxing. He really hasn't used his BJJ because most opponents keep the fight standing. And rightfully so as he is has an amazing ground game. He has power in his hands and catches opponents with his counters. Isn’t as aggressive but walks down his opponents. Bogatov is a grinder. Will constantly try to take an opponent down with his wrestling. Has good jujitsu and good stand up. But Santos is the better fighter here all around. If its kept standing, Santos will catch him and if it goes to the ground, we will see why most fighters don't want to play with his ground game.

Santos ML -185
Under 2 1/2 rounds +140

 


Holloway vs Volkanovski


Volk is a powerful and fast fighter. His leg kicks were the main reason why he won the last fight. Kept chopping at the lead keg of Holloway and was able to close the distance even with the reach disadvantage. He had great counters and really showed his power with those overhand rights. The champ would have to fight a similar game plan. Chop at the legs and prevent Holloway from getting comfortable. Holloway is smarter than that. He was a bit hesitant in the last fight. His failure to check the constant leg kicks prevented him from really imposing his normal game plan. If he can throw his own kicks and work that jab more, he can bait Volk into his game plan. He will come into this fight knowing his opponent and show his more aggressive side, which Volk didn't see much last fight. I feel that both fighters will want to finish this fight. And they both have the power and fighting style to do so. But overall, I feel Holloway has more tricks up his sleeve and would look to be aggressive from the start of the fight.

Holloway ML +195
Under 4 1/2 rounds +195

06/27/2020

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs Hooker

 

DPduece1

Free Pick Analysis

Youssef Zalal vs Jordan Griffin

 

This Featherweight bout features the young talented Youssef Zalal against MMA Vet Jordan Griffin. Zalal is fighting in his second UFC fight winning his first by decision while The Native Psycho Griffin fighting in 26th MMA Fight. For Zalal this fight is going to be a measuring stick. He is going against a vet in Jordan Griffin who has kept it close in his two losses against great UFC fighters.

Zalal is an explosive fighter who has a great mixture of kicks and punches. He uses great side to side movement to attack from different angles and to evade opponents’ flurries. He has some of the quickest hands in the division and can beat anyone to the punch. In his short career he has shown he can do some good work on the ground having 5 sub wins. In his first fight in the UFC although he was winning the fight on the feet, he did manage to keep his opponent guessing by changing levels and taking him down on multiple occasions completely dominating the match. He does keep his hands down most of the time and needs to watch out for Griffin coming in catching him with something.

 

The Native Psycho Griffin is fighting in his 3rd UFC fight coming off a win Against TJ Brown after dropping his first two. Griffin was supposed to fight a few weeks ago but his opponent dropped out due to a bad weight cut. Griffin has good cardio constantly putting pressure and pushing pace on his opponents. He does have a decent stand up game throwing more than one strike at a time and mixing it in with some kicks. Although he does not have the Jiu Jitsu credentials most of his finishes have been by submission, so you must be cautious of him on the ground. His fights tend not to make it to the end having finished 14 of his 18 wins.

 

Going into this bout, with main card aspirations, I do see it as an exciting back and forth match up. It is tough to get a feel for Zalal with him being so young and fresh to the scene but there is undeniable talent in him, but his opponent Griffin is no slouch. This fight may start a bit slow with both trying to get timing down and maybe Griffin chasing Zalal around the ring but that will change as soon as one of them gets popped in the mouth. With Zalal having the quickness advantage Griffin is going to have to get inside, maybe get it against the cage and get in some dirty boxing. Easier said than done, Zalal has great side movement and can use that footwork to evade Griffins attacks. After a while I think Griffin will get a bit frustrated and take a few more risks that can leave openings for the quick hands of Zalal. Only thing that does scare me is the way Zalal moves around the ring with his hands down and if Griffin starts to cut him off it gives him a chance to catch him right on the chin. I do see some takedowns happening in this match trying to test each other on the ground but if there is, Zalal's athleticism and Griffin's great scrambling abilities will see them getting right back up. With neither afraid to stand and strike and both having great ground games I see this fight having the chance to be Fight of the Night. Hard to predict a winner in this one, but what I do see is that it's not going to go 3 rounds. Watch out for some wild striking that could lead to a TKO or a crazy scrambling submit. Take the under before the odds start to go down.

 

Zalal/Griffin Under 2.5  (+135)

06/20/2020

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Volkav

 

DPduece1

Free Pick Analysis

 

 

Oskar Piechota vs Marc-Andre Barriault

 

Coming into this fight I see two desperate fighters in need of a win to keep their UFC careers going. Both fighters are coming off 3 straight losses with Polish Oskar Piechota getting finished in all three while Canadian Marc-Andre Barriault losing all three by decision.

Piechota came into the UFC with an undefeated record and only 1 bout going to the scorecards (draw). He won his first two fights in the UFC but has dropped all 3 fights since 1 by KO and 2 by Sub. He is black belt Jiu Jitsu fighter with some power coming in having 5 KOs and 5 Subs in 11 wins. Piechota doesn't throw many combinations usually trying to pick his spots to throw his hard-looping overhand right. He does have an active ground game always trying to transition to a sub even on his back.  His downfall is that he does have an issue with cardio so getting past the 1st round is trouble for him.

His opponent Barriault has 3 fights in this promotion and came out on the losing end in all three. He did fight a couple tough fighters in Jotko, Sanchez and all three came by decision so you know he has fight in him. Berriault also has some power with 8 of his wins coming by KO although it hasn't translated yet in the UFC, albeit he's fighting much better fighters with better chins. What I like about him is that he has shown that he can take a punch and has a relentless pace that keeps him coming at you even in the later rounds. He uses that constant pressure to intimidate opponents and tire them out. Having fought in 3 different weight classes gives him the experience of fighting not only faster fighters but the bigger stronger ones and never being finished.

To start the fight, I see both fighters playing it safe getting a feel for each other with Barriault controlling the cage a bit. It's going to be important for Piechota to get started early knowing his cardio is not the best. Piechota may get the best of the exchanges early on testing the chin of Barriault but like I said before he can take a punch and keep coming at you. That's going to lead the fight against the cage where in clinch situations I see Barriault with the advantage in dirty boxing and knees. The fight should eventually go to ground where Piechota has the advantage but if Barriault can survive the constant submission attempts by Piechota it can work to his advantage. Piechota has shown a dramatic drop off in activity and speed as soon as round 2 starts so game plan against Piechota is make him work early and survive the first. If you do that, good chance he won't have anything left in the gas tank after that. With that being said, I really think Barriault can get it to later rounds and dominate them with his constant pressure and relentless motor. Maybe a boring fight but hey, a win is a win. Take Barriault with the plus money as he drags this fight out to a decision win.

 

Barriault +110

SunBum

Free Pick Analysis

Jim Miller is a real veteran of the sport, he has an overall great fighting game. He can keep it standing and take it to the ground. Has fought the best of the best in the lightweight division. But being at his age, he is prone to getting caught and finished. He is currently on a 2-fight win streak and will look to improve from that. Roosevelt Roberts is on a tear and a great up and comer. He has nice crisp boxing and isn't afraid to take it to the ground. When fighting on the ground, he passes great and will look for a submission when he gets a chance. Bottom line, Miller has too many miles to keep up with the tenacity of Roosevelt. If Miller plays it right, he could squeeze out a win but unlikely.

 

Roosevelt Roberts -225

06/13/2020

UFC Fight Night: Calvillo vs Eye

 

DPduece1

Free Pick Analysis

Mark De La Rosa vs Jordan Espinosa

 

In this bantamweight bout we have two fighters who have showed some promise since joining the UFC. Jordan Espinosa started in the contender series earning some big fights, fighting top 15 fighters in his first 3 fights in the UFC. Mark De La Rosa always an exciting fighter by pushing the pace is looking to get a “W” in a fight against a ranked opponent.

Espinosa is coming off two straight Sub losses against two top opponents. He has an awkward attack that has him bouncing around the octagon making it hard for fighters to get his timing down. He is very quick and throws hard with each punch. He hasn’t really shown KO power but can really rock an opponent when he lands flush. He does tend to keep his hands down and head up leaving him open for counters and an open target for aggressive strikers. Although his pace seems tiring, it doesn’t seem to affect him too much showing some cardio in his first UFC bout against Shelton.

 

De La Rosa, a black belt Jiu Jitsu artist, isn’t afraid to keep it standing and bang with his opponent. He also keeps a great pace never shying away from action showing he has great chin to take a punch. He works in great combos to get in on fighters but does lack that KO power. Being a great Jiu Jitsu fighter he hasnt really gone to the mat so far in the UFC which I think he'd be better off at.

 

I see a lot of back and forth striking early in the fight both trying to test each other. With Jordan being the quicker fighter, he should be able to get some power strikes in while De La Rosa tries to get his timing down. Once he gets somewhat of Jordans timing down I think he will be able to get some counters in putting him in retreat mode making him second guess his attacks. Even though De La Rosa doesn’t have KO power I don’t like how Jordan keeps his hands down leaving him open for getting knocked in his face. So as the fight slows down later in rounds De La Rosa should be able to push him into the cage tire him out maybe securing a takedown. There he can try and soften him up with some punches working his ground game where I think he is superior and where Jordan has shown weakness to in his last couple fights. With that being said if De La Rosa can weather the early storm picking his spots and not get into a brawl, I see him tiring Jordan a bit in later rounds leaving him vulnerable for getting taken to the mat and a possible 3rd straight sub loss. I see too many holes in Jordan's game and De La Rosa winning this bout by decision maybe late round Sub. Take De La Rosa at + odds.

 

De La Rosa +140

Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar

 

We have a bantamweight fight between Charles "Boston Strong" Rosa and The Angel of Death Kevin Aguilar. Both fighters are coming off losses and looking to get back on track. This is a fight of opposites as Rosa would like to take fight to the ground while Aguilar loves to stand and punch.

 

Charles Rosa is coming off a recent loss where he was completely dominated. The fight was where he wanted it but Bryce Mitchell didn’t let him capitalize on his great submissions. Rosa will need to reset and see what he can do differently in the matchup against a dominate striker. Rosa is mostly known for his submission game ending 8 of his 12 wins with a tap.

 

Aguilar known as strictly a striker with KO power. He has 10 knockouts to his name, which tallies up for 60% of his wins. He is pretty one dimensional not really showing any threat on floor, but most his fight usually remains standing. He did show he has a fairly good chin in his fight with Ige although he did get knocked out in his last fight.

 

With both fighters having strengths in opposite areas, the winner is going to be up to where this fight takes place. Rosa mixes his striking well in all areas and tries to use that to set up take downs while Aguilar is strictly a puncher. Aguilar is a strong 145 pounder who will be hard to take down. Early in the fight I see Aguilar stalking Rosa landing some combos testing his opponents chin while Rosa using his footwork to try avoiding his heavy punches. After catching a few, I do see Rosa trying to take it to the mat but will have no success with Aguilars great takedown defense (80%). With this fight being inside the Apex arena (5 feet smaller octagon) there is going to be less room to evade attacks from Aguilar. At some point I see Aguilar catching Rosa hard with punches that rock Rosa putting him in position for KO/TKO finish. Aguilar gets back to his winning ways with an early finish. Take the favorite Kevin Aguilar in this one.

 

Kevin Aguilar -170

SunBum

Free Pick Analysis

Jordan Espiosa vs Mark De La Rosa

Espinosa is very agile and quick on the feet. He is very aggressive and shows power in his striking. Isn't afraid to take the fight to the ground and work the fight there. He last two loses have been by submission and shows that his submission defense needs work.

 

De la Rosa has great boxing and likes to work in takedowns. He technical and shows power in his punching. He’s aggressive and has great bjj with good transitions and submission attempts.

 

Both fighters need a win from this. I feel is De la Rosa and work in his boxing against Espinosa’s striking and land takedowns, he will win this fight with a submission but if he gets caught trading strikes with Espinosa, he will lose. Either way someone is getting finished.

 

Under 2.5 +190

06/06/2020

UFC 250: Nunes vs Spencer

DPduece1

Free Pick Analysis

Assuncao vs Garbrandt

 

Here are two UFC bantamweight title contenders facing off in what should be an exciting fight. Raphael Assuncao is coming off two tough losses against top 5 contenders while Cody 'No Love" Garbrandt is trying to figure things out after getting KO'd in last three. Brazilian Assuncao is a great black belt Jiu Jitsu artist who has shown that he can stand up with up the best. He is coming off a loss to Sandhagen, who is also on this card, trying to keep his name in the running for next contender for the bantamweight belt. He has great ground game but is also very dangerous on his feet and adds a front leg kick that stops his opponents in their tracks before laying it on them with his powerful overhand right that can really rock someone. He also has great cardio with an average fight time of over 12 mins.

 

Garbandt coming off three straight losses, all by KO, looks to return to what he's used. Laying people out. He comes in with quick hands and tremendous knockout power which has seen 9 of 11 wins end with his opponent out on the mat. This one tough to pick a winner with both beating some of the best in their division and both hungry to get back to their winning ways. With Assuncao's ground game and No love's takedown defense (never taken down before) I believe this one stays standing. Both fighters possess the ability to knock the other out so I see patient fighting at first but once Assuncao tests Garbrandt's chin to see if it’s made of glass, I see Garbrandt coming in with reckless abandon like he usually does.

 

With that, there is no need for the scorecards, someone is going to sleep. My knockout of the night nominee!! I am leaning towards Garbrandt to land that finish with him having the quicker hands and power, but I would rather play it safe and take the early finish just in case his chin doesn't hold up. The under 2.5 is the play here take it -115 before it goes up!

 

UNDER 2.5 RDS (-115)

 

A. Caceres vs C. Hooper


In this prelim fight, UFC vet Alex Caceres will face off with future hopeful featherweight contender Chase Hooper. Caceres is coming off a win his last fight during his up and down UFC career. Caceres was once a young fighter who was looked at as new contender, a TUF alumni who never quite became what he was thought to be. He is looking to upset the young favorite, Hooper, who is looking to win his 2nd straight fight coming into the UFC. Caceres is good striker using a lot of movement and footwork to land a mix of punches and kicks. He has struggled against some good stand up fighters and leaves openings for counters when coming in. He likes to keep the fight standing although he does not have KO power just likes to tag and wear opponents down. He is not really a good grappler or submission specialist and is suspect to submissions having been submitted in 7 of his 12 losses. He is a UFC vet having 20+ fights in the octagon and that top-notch experience is hard to ignore.

Hooper is a young raw fighter who loves to take his fights to the mat where he uses his long lengthy limbs to put his opponents in vulnerable situations and make them tap. He has some crazy flexibility helping him transition to advantageous positions setting up his submissions. He fought in the contender series a few years back at only 18 yrs. old winning by decision to another young fighter. After a few fights in other promotions Dana White brought him in to start his UFC career where he won by TKO (elbows and punches) after using his great grappling game to end up on top of his opponent Daniel Teymur. Like I said this kid is raw and has a lot of improving to do but I do see him having some success against Caceres who has been known to tap out. I see Caceres catching him with some strikes waking up the youngin’ but Hooper has been known to take a punch in his previous fights. He also has a fresh chin and with Caceres not having much power I don’t see him knocking him out. Another factor is that who knows how much Hooper has grown since his last fight, remember, this kid is only 20 years old and 6 months of training can help a lot. So, we might see some improvements in his striking game which needed much polishing.

What I see happening is Hooper continuing to make gains while Caceres still being Caceres and never really evolving his game. Hooper is not going to try and strike with this guy and will try take it to the ground where he's far better than Caceres pulling out submission attempt after submission attempt and ending the fight with  a Caceres tap. Give me the young buck at decent odds.

 

Chase Hooper -170

add the Under 2.5 -145 if you want a bigger payout!

Sunbum

Free Pick Analysis

E. Wineland vs S. O Malley

Sean o Malley is an up a comer that has outstanding striking. He is a bit flashy and cocky, but he can back that up. He tends to keep his guard down when striking and showboats a little bit. Eddie Wineland is a vet of the sport. Has a unique fighting style and has fought against the best. He is not as active as his opponent which could be his downfall. Might be slower cause of how long he's been fighting. Both coming off KO wins and looking to keep in the win column. Sean is looking to make a statement with this fight for a title run. Eddie won't be looking to trade in the pocket as much so I feel he can keep up with Sean to the end.

Over 1 1/2 rounds

 

E. Dunham vs H. Burns

Dunham is coming out of retirement for this fight. Previous years he was a great contender with solid stand up and great BJJ. Beating some of the best out there. This fight will be a true test. The long layoff might be an issue. Burns isn't one to take lightly. He trains with his top contender brother and shows great ground game and good stand up. If Dunham fights like his old ways, I see this going the distance. But I think the younger contender takes this either way

Burns -210

 

A. Carceres vs C. Hooper

Coming from TUF, Caceres (aka Bruce Leroy) was supposed to be the next best thing. But over the years he hasn't shown a big improvement. His stand up is still good but needs work and his ground game is what makes him an okay fighter. Not showing much defense I feel he can't keep up with Hooper. He’s the better fighter on the ground and I feel has a better overall game here. I feel a finish here, probably by submission

Hooper -170

 

A. Nunes vs A. Spencer

I say this will be fight of the night. Nunes is the best p4p woman's fighter to date. She has amazing power and great foot work. Spencer can hang with the best of them, but I don't see her beating Nunes unless she gases which I doubt.

Over 1 1/2 rounds

05/30/2020

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs Burns

DPduece1

Free Pick Analysis

J.Hill vs A.Abreu

In this fight, Jamahal Hill faces Adison Abreu. Both fighters are relatively new to the UFC with Hill fighting his second fight and Abreu having a little more experience fighting in his 4th. With Only 7 fights under his belt, Hill, is still raw in talent but has shown great skills with using his length, height, and striking ability. He has good cardio and puts constant pressure with great combinations of straight to the point punches and strong body kicks. He also likes to come in with big knees at times that can really hurt his opponents. He is great in the clinch throwing knees and elbows to inflict damage. His opponent Abreu, a jui jitsu world champ comes in with a bit more experience (15-4) looking to add another win to UFC resume after losing 2 of his first 3 bouts in the promotion. Abreu has shown good cardio with decent power in his few fights in the UFC and known to be able to take a punch. In this fight I see Hill progressing a bit from his last fight stating previously that he was disappointed in UFC debut against powerful striker in Stosic. He won the fight but showed some holes in his game by not using great head movement, getting caught with his hands down and taking some powerful counter punches. He was also taken down 6 times. 

Mistakes happen when you are fighting higher caliber opponents in the biggest promotion in the world. But I see Hill fixing those errors and fighting a lot smarter, improving on avoiding damage while still using his aggressive striking nature to win the fight against Abreu who doesn’t really utilize his strength, which is his ground game. Although, he does go for takedowns now and then he mostly stands in strikes and Hill is not a person you want to stand and strike with. I do see Abreu going for take downs, but Hill has the perfect counter with vicious knees that will keep him from securing any. Abreu does have a tendency of leaving openings for uppercuts and knees, so I will not be surprised if Hill catches him as he changes levels. Overall, as long as Hill keep his hands up for counters when on attack and he utilizes his jab keeping him at bay with his 5-inch reach advantage, i see him winning a striking match that he is definitely superior in. Abreu will be outclassed on his feet again not being able to show his submission skills once again. Hill wins by decision but it could end early with Hill knee.

 

Jamahal Hill -130

05/16/2020

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Harris

DPduece1

Free Pick Analysis

Harris vs Overeem


Harris
-2.96 significant strikes per minute
-All 13 Wins by KO/TKO
-17 of 20 career fight ended in a finish (14 1st rd finishes)
-Last 2 fights ended in 1st rd. KO
-Avg fight time in UFC 6:35
-1.4 knockdown ratio

 

Overeem
-3.65 significant strikes landed vs 4.69 significant strikes absorbed per minute
- 73% of significant strikes land
-40 of 45 wins ended in a finish
-15 of 18 losses ended in finish (84%)
-.9 knockdown ratio

There’s a lot on the line in this main event fight between Harris and Overeem. Winner moves up to be next in line to challenge for the heavyweight title after Ngannou. Overeem is a vet with a lot of experience, over 60 fights in his career. He is a household name and legend in the sport of MMA going for possibly his final push for the UFC heavyweight belt. He has an excellent striking game and has one of the best clinches using his kicks and knees to subdue opponents. Even though he is turning 40 the day after the fight, he still has the power to knock people out. I see him using his kicks and footwork to keep Harris at bay but the question is for how long. Harris, a former golden gloves champ, has crazy power and if he catches Overeem with a clean one he’s definitely going down. He is coming off 2 first round KO of Spivak then Oleynik. He knows what’s at stake and comes in with a lot of motivation to work his way up to a title shot. I see both playing it safe at first but then opening more as the fight goes on. Both guys have great power and finishing skills so just one punch can send one of them to the mat. Harris is the fresher fighter having less fights taking less damage then Overeem. Although I like Harris to win you can never count out anyone in this weight class, especially someone as experienced as Overeem. Therefore, I really like the under 1.5 rounds in this fight. Harris has won all his fights by KO and Overeem has an 89% finish rate. With the odds being at +125 the under is a no brainer.

 

Under 1.5 Rounds (+125)

 

Vera vs Yadong


Vera
-3.15 landed vs 3.83 absorbed (significant strikes)
-1.4 submission attempts per 15 mins
-86% finish rate
-8 out of 15 wins by submissions
-52% significant strike defense


Yadong
-3.54 landed vs 2.74 absorbed (significant strikes)
-.97 knockdown ratio
-60% finish rate
-62% significant strike defense

This fight is huge for both fighters trying to move up in rankings. This is my prediction for fight of the night. The South American Marlon "Chito" Vera looking for a 6th straight win and possible 6th straight finish.  He comes in with tons of experience fighting in his 14th UFC bout. He is an an excellent submission artist that can also stand and strike. Yadong trains with Team Alpha Male who breeds talent in the lighter divisions. Yadong is an excellent technical striker who hits hard and fast. He won his first 4 UFC fights before ending up with a draw in his last fight against #11 Cody Stamann. He is only 22 years old looking to further boost his hype with a win against #15 Marlon Vera. Vera is exceptionally durable having never been finished in any of his losses though his chin is going to be tested against Yadong. Vera tends to sometimes cover up instead of using footwork when getting a flurry of punches so hes going to have to avoid doing that against the power of Yadong. I think early on Yadong will cause him problems with constant pressure utilizing his quick power punching along with his great footwork. Yadong hasn’t faced a fighter that fights as awkward as Chito throwing punches, knees, and elbows from weird angles and that’s going to keep Yadong guessing on what’s coming next and where its coming from. He is also going to want to keep it standing to avoid Chitos excellent submission game. At some point during the fight I do see it going to the mat and Chito taking advantage possibly catching him in a submission late in the fight once they tire out a bit. Its great anytime you can get a talented UFC vet at an underdog price against a young pup still learning. Put money on Chito and collect!

Vera (+160)

Sunbum

Free Pick Analysis

 

 

Baeza vs Brown

Baeza is the next up and coming young fighter. He has powerful stand up and strong leg kicks, an active fighter and keeps a good pace. Matt Brown is a veteran of the sport. Likes to grind out a fight as well as slug it out. He is not as active as Baeza but with all the experience, he does not need much. Matt brown will take it to the young fighter and play a smart game plan. I can see an upset with Baeza not having a long fight career at this moment and he tends to keep his hands down later in the fight. Matt brown will grind him out, but the smart play will be the over on rounds.

Over 1 1/2 rounds (-135)

 

Yadong vs Vera

What an anticipated fight. I say this fight will be fight of the night. Two young and explosive fighters. Vera is on a good little win streak against good competition. Good leg kicks he likes to switch up paired with good boxing. Ground game has been tested and it holds up. Active on the bottom with good submission attempts. One thing I can see that will be a problem for him in this fight is his linear stand up. Not as explosive but tight and slugs it out. He tends to stay active all the way to the end which has won him some fights. Yadong is the next big thing. With his experience in Sando and BBJ, he will go far in the UFC. Very explosive boxing. Doesn't throw a lot of leg kicks but he makes in up with his constant footwork and ability to close the distance fast. Head move will play a role here as Yadong will want to avoid taking shots with Vera. Since his training with Team Alpha Male

 and being coached under Uriah Faber, his wrestling to his ground game is incredible. I don't see this being a ground fight but a total all-out war on the feet. If Yadong doesn't slow down and dictates the pace, he can overwhelm Vera to a win. 

Yadong (-175)

 

Harris vs Overeem

Is Overeem done? Glass chin? A lot of talk about a former champion and kickboxing champion. His age will play a role in this fight. Harris is a young and hungry fighter. Powerful hands and determined to make it far. He can knock out the best of them. And after the death of his stepdaughter, he has a renewed spirit that will make all his fights emotional and motivating. Don't count out "Obereem" though. He has one of the best kick boxing games in the heavyweight division. Good ground game and good wrestling. His last few knockout losses came from Ngannou (arguably the most powerful striker in the division) Blaydes, and Rozenstruik. But the two of them were in the 3rd round and 5th round. He has fought the best of the best and has beaten some of the best. Overeem might not win this, but he isn't going down without a fight. 

Over 1 1/2 rounds (-140)

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